Anduril’s $20B Army Contract Reflects +55% 180-Day ROI and Expanding Market Presence in 2026

Weekly Edition & Stock Spotlight

March 18, 2026

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PM Insights provides independent, market-driven data for Private Growth and Pre-IPO companies, providing unparalleled transparency and helping asset managers, banks, consultants, investors, and regulators understand trading conditions and risk in this dynamic market.

This report examines Anduril’s position within the evolving defense technology landscape, highlighting its AI-driven autonomous systems, integrated platforms, and scalable manufacturing strategy. Supported by rising demand for software-defined warfare and major government contracts, including a U.S. Army agreement worth up to $20 billion, Anduril is positioning itself as a next-generation alternative to traditional defense primes. Its expansion across multi-domain systems and continued development of the Lattice platform reinforce its role in AI-enabled defense.

Key Takeaways

  • Revenue Expansion: Anduril’s revenue increased 115% year-over-year to $2.15B in 2025
  • ROI Momentum: Anduril delivered strong gains of +55.12%, +13.91%, and +9.58% over the past 180 days, 90 days, and 30 days respectively
  • Peak Bid-Ask Volume: Bid-ask volume peaked at $1.60 billion in 2025 Q4

ROI Private & Public

|| ROI from March 16, 2025 until March 16, 2026.

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The PM50 Growth tracks the performance of the 50 most active private names observed in the secondary market. It is an equal-weighted index, rebalanced on a monthly basis.

This rebalancing of constituents over time gives way for more active names to participate in what we observe as "market performance," and in a more appropriate manner than static selections and weightings criteria.

Most Active Names Performance Across All Sectors

Data as of March 16, 2026.

90D Return △ - Trend of return on composite price
90D % △ - Change in composite price in terms of percentage

Price (USD) estimated based on secondary market activity observed by PM Insights. Valuation is estimated based on said price and share count from state filings and/or news in the public domain. Note that share count in calculations may change as new filing documents are obtained.

Stock Spotlight - Anduril
Sectors

Aerospace Defence

Headquarters
Costa Mesa, California, USA
CEO
Brian Schimpf

“Transforming Defense Capabilities with Advanced Technologies”

Anduril is a defense technology company that builds autonomous systems and mission software for national security customers, positioning itself as a vertically integrated alternative to traditional prime contractors and legacy defense integrators.

The company focuses on combining AI, sensor networks, and robotics across air, land, sea, and space to deliver operational capabilities faster than conventional defense procurement cycles, targeting the United States and allied militaries that are modernizing for great power competition.

Business Model

Anduril operates as a full‑stack defense technology provider that designs, manufactures, and fields hardware systems that are tightly integrated with its core Lattice software platform. It generates revenue primarily through long‑term government programs and production contracts for systems like autonomous aerial vehicles, counter‑UAS, underwater vehicles, and border surveillance towers, as well as software licenses and associated support tied to Lattice deployments.

The company’s model emphasizes building products ahead of formal requirements, then scaling them through multi‑year Department of Defense and allied government contracts rather than time‑and‑materials consulting or one‑off R&D projects.

Scale and Growth

  • Strategic positioning: Expanding by aligning with defense modernization trends in autonomy, AI-driven sensing, and cost-efficient scalable systems for U.S. and allied forces
  • Scale & volume: Operates multiple deployed programs across air, land, sea, and space with U.S. and allied defense customers
  • Geographic footprint: Headquartered in Costa Mesa, California, with additional locations in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia
  • Product breadth: Portfolio includes autonomous aircraft, undersea vehicles, land‑based sensor networks, and the Lattice AI software platform

Competitive Edge

The defense technology sector is shifting from hardware dominance to software-driven innovation:

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  • Hardware-Dominant Incumbents: Traditional contractors maintain strength in manufacturing scale, reliability, and proven systems while gradually integrating software capabilities
  • Software-Centric Innovators: Next-generation players like Anduril prioritize AI-first development, redefining how defense systems are built and deployed
  • Capability Tradeoff: Incumbents leverage scale and durability, while emerging companies offer greater adaptability, speed, and autonomous functionality
  • Strategic Tension: Competition centers on hardware reliability versus software-driven agility and autonomy

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Targeted Impact

Anduril advances national security by delivering AI-driven defense technology to protect borders, assets, and allied forces.

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What Comes Next?

Anduril is investing $2B+ to hyperscale autonomous weapons production via Ohio Arsenal-1 and a new Long Beach R&D campus.

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Who will benefit?

Anduril's advanced defense technologies benefit defense agencies, military groups, border security, and allied governments.

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Anduril's Timeline

Anduril's Strategic Ecosystem: Investors & Key Relationships

Prominent News

US Army announces contract with Anduril worth up to $20B, March 14, 2026 - The U.S. Army awarded Anduril a contract worth up to $20B to accelerate deployment of its AI-driven defense systems. Click here to read more.
Anduril set to acquire Orange County space surveillance company, March 12, 2026 - Anduril agreed to acquire space surveillance firm ExoAnalytic to expand its capabilities in space tracking, missile defense, and global sensor intelligence. Click here to read more.
Anduril aims at $60 billion valuation in new funding round, March 3, 2026 - Anduril is reportedly raising a new multibillion-dollar round that could double its valuation to ~$60B, led by major investors like Thrive Capital and a16z.  Click here to read more

Revenue

The graph below displays the revenue and revenue growth of Anduril from 2021 to 2026.

  • Anduril’s revenue grew 115% year-over-year to $2.15 billion in 2025, with 2026 revenue forecasted at $2.24 billion

Return on Investment (ROI)

The graph below displays Anduril's ROI over the past 90, 60, and 30 days, computed as of March 16, 2026.

  • 180D: ↑ +55.12% since September 18, 2025
  • 90D: ↑ +13.91% since December 17, 2025
  • 30D: ↑ +9.58% since February 15, 2026

Funding Round in USD

  • Primary Funding Round: Anduril raised $500 million in Series G-1 on January 14, 2026, at a $37.95B valuation
  • Secondary Market Valuation: $95.10 billion on March 16, 2026, according to PM Insights

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Primary Round Valuation

<span class="date">2026-01-14</span>
<span class="value">$37.95B</span>

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Secondary Market Valuation

<span class="date">2026-03-16</span>
<span class="value">$95.08B<span>

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Valuation Change

<span class="date">primary → secondary</span>
<span class="value green">+150.56%<span>

</card>

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Quarterly Bid-to-Ask Volume Ratio

PM Insights presents the quarterly bid-to-ask volume ratio of Anduril from 2022 Q1 to 2026 QTD. The stacked bar chart below shows total quarterly bid and ask volumes alongside their relative ratios, illustrating market activity.

  • Highest volume: $1.60 billion in 2025 Q4
  • Lowest volume and Largest bid-side activity: 100% of $300 thousand in 2022 Q1
  • Largest ask-side activity: 92% of $849.30 million were asks in 2023 Q1

Volatility of Composite Price

The volatility of the composite price is calculated based on price movements within a 90-day rolling window ending on each respective date. The graph below illustrates the trend in volatility of composite price for Anduril for a one year period from March 17, 2025 until March 16, 2026.

  • Volatility started at 10.10% in mid-March 2025 and trended downward with minor fluctuations through late August 2025
  • It then increased gradually, with intermittent spikes, reaching a peak of 13.40% in mid-November 2025
  • Following the peak, volatility declined with several sharp drops, reaching a low of 6.74% in mid-January 2026
  • It then recovered gradually, with a brief spike, ending the period at 11.92%

Anduril's Private Comparables

PM Insights highlights a comparison between Anduril and its close competitor, Shield AI, leading defense technology firms focused on AI-driven autonomy and battlefield systems, both experiencing strong demand and growing activity across private market platforms.

Change in Valuation

PM Insights uses composite prices based on institutional-sized broker contributions within the last 90 days to compute implied valuations. The current implied valuations reported below were computed as of March 16, 2026, and are compared to each company's latest funding round valuation and valuation on December 31, 2025.

  • Shield AI's current implied valuation is $10.08B, a 90.28% increase from its latest valuation of $5.3B. Shield AI's implied valuation was $6.3B on December 31, 2025.
  • Anduril's current implied valuation is $95.08B, a 150.56% increase from its latest valuation of $37.95B. Anduril's implied valuation was $71.5B on December 31, 2025.

90D Bid and Ask Volume Ratio

The stacked bar chart below illustrates the bid and ask volume ratios for the period from December 17, 2025, to March 16, 2026, showing only companies with at least 3 contributions.

  • Highest volume: Shield AI, $1.02 billion
  • Lowest volume: Anduril, $577.30 million

Change in Composite Price

The bar chart below illustrates the 90-day change in composite prices for the period from December 17, 2025, to March 16, 2026.

  • Strongest gain: Shield AI's composite price was up +61.90%
  • Lowest gain: Anduril's composite price was up +13.91%

YTD Average Volatility of Composite Price

The volatility of the composite price is calculated based on price movements within a 90-day rolling window ending on that date. The bar chart below displays the mean volatility from January 1, 2026 until March 16, 2026.

  • Highest Volatility: 11.47%, Shield AI
  • Lowest Volatility: 9.14%, Anduril

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